Thursday August 19, 2010 04:22
Actually Document Web was Dead
Wired magazine titled cover story of “The Web Is Dead. Long Live the Internet.â€ which the Web is being sinking by a world of closed platform as like iPhone or Xbox and the users prefer dedicated platforms, designed specifically for mobile screens.
Most of reaction in this story are “Wired is wrong” although it is just prediction. (Wired’s prescient was wrong in the past.). I want to argue this issue in several aspects and give my opinion in recent change in the Web world.
The Web goes Less Bandwidth
Especially it gave an extreme example of traffic chart that the Web has been declined because of video and p2p. As BoingBoing and NewYork Times indicated, the chart itself is misleading and is not proof of its argument.
The Web was always killed by another applications in terms of network traffic as like the push service, PointCast in early stage web, the streaming service, Real Player and Napster in mid-stage web and finally Skype and BitTorrent in right now.
Chris Anderson is famous person, the creator of “Long tail” with the interesting chart presentation. But, in this case, it seems to be wrong.
Google is not the Web
Its main argument is the moving trend of ‘semiclosed’ platforms and business from the web: â€œThis is not a trivial distinction. Over the past few years, one of the most important shifts in the digital world has been the move from the wide-open Web to semiclosed platforms that use the Internet for transport but not the browser for display.â€ in debate of Chris Anderson, Tim O’relly and John Battelle.
Certainly, there was such a trend to closed platform from Facebook to iTunes, as Chris said, which are ruled by Terms of Service and invisible to Googleâ€™s crawlers. But, most of the Web were always invisible and Google was a slave of internet potal sites in the early web. In the past, the internet portals as like Yahoo, Lycos and MSN gathered all of contents and ruled the Web.
Google’s success story was based on lots of the information diffusion by the users as like blogs, wikis and crowd-sourcing of links(PageRank) and keyword based searching intention in aspects of the business. Google’s fail is not dead of the Web.
Application vs. Document
Before the Web 2.0 era, the Open APIs of eBay, Amazon and Google were mostly closed to be offered only to contracted 3rd parties. In now, most of Data APIs are open in the Web protocol and makes the rich applications from desktop to mobile. As I said, Ajax technology enabled the data web based on user interactions. It means transactions of traditional Web documents has been decreased and frankly JSON is winner of the Web.
In 2007, Eric Schmidt already pointed out Web 3.0 will be “applications that are pieced together” - with the characteristics that the apps are relatively small, the data is in the cloud, the apps can run on any device (PC or mobile), the apps are very fast and very customizable, and are distributed virally (social networks, email, etc).
From Facebook to iTunes, most of the contents still delivered by Web framework either HTML or JSON and either web browsers or iPhone app (Over 80% iPhone apps are hybrid to the web contents).
The innovation was also made by Web browser vendors, which they made WHATWG in 2004 against W3C’s document Web and devoted to HTML5 for the smart web application. We still used the Web browser in iPhone, iPad, BlackBerry and Android in the more rich Web environment.
In HTML5 Era, the web application can be installed in user agent and communicate with the server for data pieces by Ajax and Web Socket.
It means actually Document Web was dead, but Web application will be long live.
Money: Sell or Broking
People said traditional business models are only two things: selling goods or broking it. Chris indicated the money left from the Web and followed AppStore, but Tim responded there still has been advertisement, eCommerce and subscription models in the opened Web.
Twitter sells user’s tweets to search engines and Facebook earned money from advertisement. Google will establish “Web Store” soon as well as iPhone users buy hybrid web apps in AppStore. I thinks Chris’s “Internet is long live” is right under Web framework in both technical and business aspects.
Diffusion or Concentration
In my viewpoint, the Web has been cyclic changes between diffusion and concentration as like Oscillating Universe Theory. It’s similar with Tim’s opinion “Open or Closed”. But. it’s little different in organic process of the Web itself.
Early web was born in diffusional properties with hyperlink of the document. Most of informations were distributed in global web servers. It means finding information is very hard and internet portals were raised in reaction. But, they concentrated all of Web contents in closed “CMS” in their platform. Another reactions are blog, wiki, video and Open APIs based web platforms (and ecosystem) in so called Web 2.0 in five years.
Chris’s argument is another reaction of concentration trends of sharing information in nowadays. But, I predict to reach a height of the diffusion trend by HTML5, mobile web and social media in five years. In next? It’s your turn.